Modified:
11 Jul 2009
by Dhc
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DEBATE: OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
Posted by: booji
Karma:
3021
Millions of Iranians took to the streets to protest at what they believed to be vote rigging by Ahmadinejad and Khamenei in the wake of the presidential elections of 12th June 2009. This provided the perfect opportunity for strong US support to the Iranian moderates and the possibility of getting rid of the Islamic Republic and replacing it with a more secular system, why was the chance missed?
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
a movement not about election fraud but about regime change
The election provided the spark to ignite the anti-regime movement into life. It has been behind the scenes for years. This means that the movement quickly changed from being about election fraud to being about overthrowing the regime, or at least a part of it. As Charles Krauthammer puts it “They want to bring down the tyrannical, misogynist, corrupt theocracy that has imposed itself with the very baton-wielding goons that today attack the demonstrators.”[1] This made the legitimacy of the of the regime at stake making it much easier to give a little push to knock over the whole house of cards.
- ^ Charles Krauthammer, Hope and Change – but not for Iran, Washington Post, Friday 19th June 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/18/AR2009061803495.html
It is very easy to look at street protests from a western point of view and leap to the conclusion that they are momentous and also portentous for the current regime. Whether or not there is now some regime change sentiment it is only on the fringes. Had Mousavi won and been accepted as winner what would have happened? Certainly only a reshuffling of the chairs, a slight re-alignment at best. If he were to ride the tide to a victory now? A slight realignment plus a little change in the power of the supreme leader. Even in those colour revolutions of the various former Soviet Union states for al the hope at the time have produced little more, the Orange Revolution promised much and is the most successful of these, result - political gridlock.[1]
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
A decisive turning point.
Obama failed to act at what may well turn out to have been a decisive turning point in Iran, a point where the regime could have gone either way, with more support the moderates may well have been able to turn over the regime rather than the demonstrations fizzling out once the Regime struck back. This could have had large repocussions that would have been very beneficial to US interests making it worth the risk of some intervention. With Iran as a major supporter of terrorism it would have struck a blow at Islamist extremism by showing that theocratic states do not survive. Iran as the financer and supplier of terrorism all over the middle east would have been moved from a position of hostility to a more friendly stance that no longer attempts to block US interests. It would have helped by weakening Hizbulla in labanon and Hamas in Palestine thus in the process strengthening Israel; A key US ally. By damaging the ability of the shia in Iraq to organise it would have helped keep the peace in Iraq when US soldiers finally leave. In short an overthrow of the theocratic regime would have immensely reduced the threat posed by US’ enemies in the Middle East.[1]
- ^ Charles Krauthammer, Hope and Change – but not for Iran, Washington Post, Friday 19th June 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/18/AR2009061803495.html
If Obama had intervened then he could have caused major problems in the area and probably turned what was a turning point in the long run into a crisis for Iran and the whole Middle East in the short run. The hardliners could have said with more credit than they had that this is a US plot to undermine Iran's sovereignty, something for there has been historical precedent with the Americans overthrowing the democratic government in the 1950's. This could have aggravated moderates and liberals in opposition on US involvement in the middle East and strengthened the hardliners to a possibly unassailable position especially on nuclear weapons. Added to that it could have annoyed other countries including democratic ones like Lebanon or those possibly. Instead thanks to American restraint this was indeed a "possibly decisive" turning point but one marking a curve in a long road rather than a sharper and more explosive one.[1]
- ^ Ben Smith "Unrest in Iran forces President Obama's hand" Politico.comhttp://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23778_Page2.html Accessed 1.07.09
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
Democracy in Iran means regime change
The aim of the US should be to encourage democracy in the middle east including iran. In the case of Iran this necessarily means regime change. Having a democracy would not work with a supreme leader that Khomeini and Khamenei have been, this position is a marriage of church and state in one person who therefore is in charge of the country rather than the president. This would have to go; how could a religious position be decided by fully free elections?[1] There is no room for a guardian council made up of clerics in a democracy, it should be elected or at least include a broad base of experts representing all areas of society.
- ^ Reuel Marc Gerecht, The June 12 Revolution, the weekly standard, 29th june 2009, Vol.14, Issue 39, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/649ktodb.asp?pg=2
The Marriage of Church and state in a single figure is hardly a uniquely Iranian phenomenon. Many states have been reformed without the removal of said spiritual head. The King or Queen of England is both head of State and Head of the church and once held considerable power in both. Their position was weakened gradually through democratic reform, though there is still a lot of residual un-exercised power. A similar situation, but reformed by outside intervention, would be the emperor of Japan Both the aforementioned are far older than the Ayatollah's current power but in either case a reformation of the system by removal would be far harder than otherwise, take the English Civil War or the US decision they could not get rid of the emperor for fear of the repercussions as guidelines. A reformation of the system from within may in the end be the better solution.
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
Precedent
A tough US stance supporting democracy rhetorically has worked before in helping to move countries on the road to free and democratically elected government. One example is where after initially taking a neutral position towards both sides in the 1986 Philippine elections President Ronald Reagan came out strongly condemning the elections as being “marred by widespread fraud and violence perpetrated largely by the ruling party." He then opposed any use of force against the protesters and urged Marcos, the Philippine president, to give up.[1] Essentially open support from Obama would help counter the possibility of a crackdown against the moderates as those in power would have to keep looking over their shoulder to see what the USA might do in response.
- ^ Paul Wolfowitz, 'No Comment' Is Not an Option, The Washington Post, 19th june 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/18/AR2009061803496.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
The Philippines, where the US had a great deal of influence in other state institutions, particularly the army cannot serve as a precedent. An example rather more pertinent and for the Iranians closer to home would be the encouragement, by George H W Bush of the Shiite's in southern Iraq to rebel following the first Gulf War, this bloodbath is not an encouraging precedent at all. Often words are just words and without the support of force will do nothing but raise false hopes, while in this case actually invigorating the regime (see the moderates do not want US help point). A betrayal of raised hopes will only make a second chance less likely.
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
The Moderates do not want US help
The moderates not wanting US help does not mean it should not be given if it would make a difference at a critical moment. The United States should do whatever is within its interests and if it is the best way to obtain US interests in Iran then the US should back the moderates no matter their views on the matter. US backing makes the moderates much more difficult to attack by the regime. While any sort of military action would probably bring Iran together this is not necessarily going to happen if the response is economic or diplomatic.
The moderates dont want Americas help; they know any attempt to get more involved risks digging the ground from under their feet, not shoring it up. The regime is just waiting for the moment they can paint the moderates as the stooges of the Great Satan. This would give them all the rhetorical ammunition for a bloody crackdown which would put current casualties into the shade. The moderates thus tarred and feathered would lose their current influence inside the system which may at the moment be strengthened by the show of popular support giving them room for future maneuver.[1]
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
Exacerbation of problem as it represents a breach of international agreements
Most nations when their interests are at stake ignore sovereignty. The major powers have throughout history been willing to intervene no matter how much they may proclaim their adherence to the concept sovereignty, if it was certain that the US could destroy Iran’s nuclear program with bombing it almost certainly would, why should liberating the citizens be treated differently? Sovereignty is something that is used and abused by nations that wish to use it as an excuse to clamp down on their domestic populations. They claim that sovereignty means that no one else can interfere in any way so allowing more bloodshed and violence as the despotic regime continues on.
The international code that the free world stands by is sovereignty. If there is one right that is universally recognised, that is the right of the political governing body to manage its own country. This is the logic that governs the West's relations with the Communist powers of China, North Korea and Cuba. It was also the approach that the UN took during the Myanmar Buddhist monks crackdown. Hence, as a unit of standardisation it should apply to Iran as well. Only then can the western powers, especially USA, retain its credibility to other countries. Failing to act as one has promised is tantamount to lying, of cheating people's trust. There has to be more than a rudimentary understanding of the situation before any party acts. Strong-rooted ideals of Islam exist not only in Iran, but in the entire region with oil-wielding states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. To interfere in Iran would be to incite anger and outrage in these countries which have long since developed a strong distaste for Western interference, which to them invades their sovereignty and religious values. In light of the Afghanistan and Iraq invasion, another attempt to meddle in the Middle East would only serve to create more tension, however noble the motivations might have been. Furthermore, interference would motivate fundamentalists to react with more violence. Already, sympathisers of religious extremists shield them from authorities and international forces. They behave so because they feel that the extremists are fighting for them, protecting their religion and their rights. To give them more reasons to do so would only prolong this debacle. If Iranians were to pull themselves out of the situation, the West should let the East fight their own battles.
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
What can actually be done?
Obama came to power with the expectation all over the world that actions he takes would be multilateral, he would persuade previously reluctant countries to follow the US line. This is precicely what he has to do. The US already has barely any trade with Iran, is imposing sanctions, has no representation so Obama has to persuade other countries to stand up to the plate. The election rigging has given good reason for other nations to follow the lead of the US. One area where the Iranians could be put under pressure is the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, which is a gas pipeline running from the Iran's South Pars gas field to population centers in the east of Pakistan such as Lahore that is due to start construction. The US has a lot of influence over Pakistan so obama could try harder to prevent construction.[1]
- ^ Robert M. Culter, Iran-Pakistan pipeline not a done deal, Asia Times Online, June 26th 2009, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF26Ak03.html
Short of serious military intervention there is very little for the US to do. Stronger condemnation of Iran is pointless rhetoric, it would just feeds the Iranian hard-liners as it always has. The other weapons in the arsenal are all essentially in use, there are already sanctions, the US supports Iranian émigré radio, US and BBC reporters have reported from the ground and that has fed through to the protests.[1]
And military intervention itself? surely not an option, the US is withdrawing from the streets of Iraq but its still overextended, and any intervention could easily destabilize Iraq once more.
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OBAMA SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO HELP THE IRANIAN MODERATES
America are not "World Police"
If the US were to fly in gung-ho like the boys from Sun Hill every time there was a riot in some far flung land then it would become a bit of a joke. I'm sure those that demand American intervention in Iran would be dumbfounded if the Marines quashed the next French fishermen blockade at Calais, or sent the Seals into the Falls Road after the Armagh bombing. This may seem facetious but, fundamentally, what is the difference?America are not the World Police and neither should they be. Let Iran, China, Korea sort out their own problems - just as we would wish these countries to keep their noses out of our domestic strife.
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booji
|08:06, 30 June 09
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