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DEBATE: FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
Posted by: booji
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April 29 was the 100th day of Barack Obama’s presidency. The “100 days” concept has had mythical status since the days of the New Deal, when Franklin D. Roosevelt made history with a blizzard of bold federal actions. And reporters have been addicted to stories around this milestone in every administration since. Although it has no real significance it can be seen as his honeymoon period where the president is least likely to encounter strong domestic or foreign resistance to his proposals, so a president’s first 100 days can be an indicator of what is to come. While there will be lots of ink spilt in the USA on domestic policies, over here in Britain a large number of these will have little impact, so what has Obama done in foreign policy?
Executive Summary
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FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
Terrorism
Obama has made several big moves on terrorism. Particularly dropping the idea of a ‘Global war on terror’ and the commitment to closing Guantanamo bay. Obama has stopped using the name GWOT that has seemed to imply an ongoing conflict with a set of united groups, this is not the case. This represents a new start in terms of getting rid of a phrase that damaged the US’ credibility, Global War on Terror implied Guantanamo Bay, extraordinary rendition and attacks on civil liberties. Practically the first thing that Obama did was to order the closure of Guantanamo bay and the overseas CIA detention centres. Obama argued that "The United States intends to prosecute the ongoing struggle against violence and terrorism... We are going to do so vigilantly, we are going to do so effectively, and we are going to do so in a manner that is consistent with our values and our ideals." Guantanamo bay has been one of the major recurring criticisms of US policy in the ‘war on terror’ during George Bush’s administration for most of the world (excepting the republicans within the US), Obama has drawn a line under this.[1]
- ^ Obama orders Guantanamo Closure, BBC News, 22nd January 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7845585.stm
The change in the name of the Global War on Terror does have some disadvantages. It has been changed to Overseas Contingency Operation with which it is difficult to tell what it means. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is now changing the defence budget away from conventional warfare towards making counterinsurgency and low-intensity conflict the primary mission of the US military. meaning that far from moving away from the Global War of Terrorism the pentagon is preparing to fight it over the long term. This involves cutting costly equipment such as the F22 Raptor that is to fight conventional wars and redirecting the money to predator drones and helicoptors that are considered essential to fighting irregular warfare.1
1 Michael T. Klare, The Gates Revolution, The Nation, (April 15, 2009),
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090504/klare
What do you think? Vote on this point below.
FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
Nuclear Disarmament
In Prague on April 5, 2009, President Barack Obama proclaimed "clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." The core of Obama’s action on nuclear disarmament has been negotiations with Russia to move towards renewing the Strategic arms reduction treaty, and hopefully reducing Russian and US stockpiles to 1000 nuclear weapons. Negotiations however are likely to be long and drawn out despite both sides having incentives to reduce their stockpiles.[1] Cooperation with Russia however has not been the entire agenda: “as the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon,” he said, “the United States has a moral responsibility to act.” Thus Obama was accepting that the USA should take the lead in nuclear disarmament. As such Obama has been pledging unilateral action; reducing the reliance on nuclear weapons in US military policy, commiting to not developing any new nuclear weapons (unlike the Bush administration that actively pursued them), ratifying the comprehensive test ban treaty and attempting to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and materials.[2]
- ^ Ian Taylor, Luke Harding, The Guardian, 6th Feb., 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/06/nuclear-disarmament-russia-us
- ^ David Krieger, A 100 Day Nuclear Disarmament Agenda, President Obama Scores High, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, 16th April 2009, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2009/04/16_krieger_100_day.php?krieger
Obama has not yet done anything on missile defence, this is something that irritated Russia, costs a lot of money, and may well never prove an effective defence. The Senate is unlikely to ratify the comprehensive test ban treaty as it would require two thirds support that at the moment the democrats do not have. While Obama has stated his ambitions in this area he has not done much to address how they are to be achieved beyond the CTBT and a new round of START, this is unlikely to address the problem of nuclear weapons being seen as a prestige technology and for rogue states being seen as something that will prevent US attack.[1] So far it is just a vision with one meeting with Demitri Medvedev to start up talks, so little action so far... these things take time!
- ^ Lawrence S. Wittner, How feasible is Obama’s Nuclear Disarmament agend?, 20th April 2009, http://hnn.us/articles/76303.html
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FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
G20
At the G20 Barack Obama to a certain extent allowed Britain to have its time in the sun. He hailed the summit as a historic turning point in the pursuit of world economic recovery.[1] Moreover he signed on to some of Gordon Brown’s ideas on solving the economic crisis thereby helping the summit towards being a success. That the US and Russia had a mini-summit on cutting nuclear arsenals on the fringe of the summit further enhanced the summit.[2] The summit itself was unusual in actually having achievements; particularly an expanded and changed IMF.
- ^ Obama hail historic G20 summit, BBC News, 3rd April 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7980558.stm
- ^ Ross Hawkins, BBC News, Brown’s G20, 2nd April 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7979539.stm
FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
General Approach
Obama’s first task has been to change the overall tone of US diplomacy to being one that welcomes dialogue and wishes cooperation with US allies on issues facing the world, no more unilateralism or ‘coalition of the willing’ that is divisive among US allies. Obama has been reaching out in the middle east, giving interviews and sending positive messages about engagement with Iran and the Arab world. He has hit the ‘reset button’ with Russian relations to try to draw a line under the geopolitical conflict between Russia and the USA throughout Eurasia.
Wendy Sherman, a Principal at the Albright Group says "It is a tone of leading and listening... [Understanding] that the world is a complicated place [and] the United States alone cannot solve all of these problems... But also understanding that the US has a responsibility to lead, accepts that responsibility, will be held accountable for that responsibility. So, I think they've gotten off to a tremendous start in probably the most complex world I've seen in my lifetime."[1]
- ^ Kim Ghattas, Obama’s first 100 days; foreign policy, BBC News, 29th April 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8025932.stm
FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
Environment
Britain and much of the rest of Europe were particularly concerned about George Bush’s stance on the environment. Obama has appointed Carol Browner who was Environmental Protection Agency head during the Clinton administration, to serve as the special adviser on climate and energy to the White House. Browner was seen as a tough regulator at the EPA, and would have been more aggressive had the White House given her more latitude. She has been joined by other top ranking officials with good green credentials.
Obama has opened the door to tougher fuel standards if states want, and the department of transport will set higher fuel-economy standards for cars and light trucks while the economic stimulus has energy and efficiency measures. This invested $62 billion on green initiatives and $20 billion on green tax incentives. The stimulis included funds for renewable energy, efficiency, transmission and mass transit. There is also a billions available to move towards creating some corridors of high speed rail.
Obama’s administration is also much more serious about cap and trade that the EU in particular, and also some US states and cities are already using. Carbon dioxide emissions are now regulated under the clean air act so falls under the remit of the environmental protection agency which has begun to create a list of the country’s largest polluters.
Obama has announced plans to regulate coal ash waste, and the destruction of mountain tops that the coal industry does to extract coal from the Appalachian mountains.[1]
- ^ Kate Sheppard, 100 days: Obama’s big green dream, The Guardian, 29th April 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/apr/27/obamas-100-days-environment
FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
Afghanistan
There have been some changes, Obama has begun to "package Afghanistan and Pakistan as a common, interrelated problem," something Bush never did. This means that there will be a coordinated plan to deal with both, although interventions may well mean destabilising Pakistan leading to a tightrope between what helps prevent terrorism and what simply undermines Pakistan as a state. There has been praise for increasing non military funding to Pakistan up to $1.5billion. As Iraq becomes less of a burden on the USA the military will be able to move forces from Iraq to Afghanistan.
Obama has done little on Afghanistan, essentially following the same policy as George Bush. Obama’s policy is a surge on the model provided by General Petraeus for George Bush in Iraq. According to James Dobbins who served in Afghanistan for Bush Obama's plan is "largely an extension of where the Bush Administration, in its last years, was heading,with some refinements and additions." It was successful there so may well be successful (in admittedly very different conditions) in Afghanistan. The numbers being deployed in this surge are very similar to the one in Iraq. Obama is continuing in trying to turn the Taliban against Al Quaeda and the moderates against extremists along with ‘Afghanisation’ with the Afghans taking on more of the burden of fighting; that should also prepare them for when the Americans eventually leave. And finally, although Obama earlier this week insisted that any Afghanistan plan had to have an exit strategy, he notably avoided articulating one today — not unlike his predecessor on Iraq.[1]
- ^ Bobby Ghosh, Time U.S., Obama Afghanistan Plan Breaks Old Ground, 28th March 2009, http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1888257,00.html
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FROM A BRITISH PERSPECTIVE HAVE OBAMA’S FIRST 100 DAYS BEEN A SUCCESS?
lack of substance
Not surprisingly there has so far been a lack of substance in Obama’s foreign policy, he has spent his time setting out his vision of the world. In domestic policy the honeymoon period rapidly comes to an end as with domestic opposition to proposals as the presidents mandate is seen as being at its strongest having just been elected. This makes much less difference in foreign policy where all nations are always looking out for themselves right from the start. Many were however expecting that Obama would come in and there would be immense foreign policy shifts immediately. This has not happened.
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