The significant funds that will be raised from these projects are to be re-invested in national conservation projects that will operate within elephant territories. The not-for-profit organisations that run these projects desperately require large injections of capital so that they are able to continue their activities and ultimately secure a sustainable future for African elephant populations. Furthermore, the lack of opportunity for private gain should in theory discourage auction officials from allowing or undertaking any illicit activity during the auction period.

Once the auctions are complete it will be difficult for the authorities to monitor the flows of the proceeds and to ensure that all money raised does indeed go towards the intended projects especially if corrupt officials are looking to infiltrate the system for personal gain.

All ivory to be auctioned is sourced from official government stockpiles that have been derived from animals that either died naturally or were officially culled as part of population management initiatives. As such it is difficult for ivory that has been illegally sourced through poaching to enter the system as tight controls are in place that are monitored by independent bodies such as CITES (Convention on International Trade and Endangered Species) and the United Nations.

Whilst in theory these auctions are strictly regulated, in reality it would be exceptionally difficult for the authorities to accurately distinguish illegal contraband from legitimate ivory. In any trade system where there is a high value commodity at stake corrupt officials at a variety of levels may operate for personal gain and undermine the legitimacy of the auctions.

These official auctions will release over 100 tonnes of ivory onto the markets and should thus in theory drive down its market value. Such devaluation of ivory should serve to discourage poachers as the financial returns they will get in exchange for the high levels of personal risk they face poaching will be significantly lower.

At present elephant populations are deemed by rural African communities as little more than a nuisance and liability to crops and villages (Leon Jooste, Namibian Environment Minister, 2008). As such it is difficult for many groups to comprehend the importance of conservation. The money generated from these auctions will not only be used to fund local conservation education initiatives but furthermore will be used for local development projects that will directly benefit rural communities. Such initiatives should ultimately serve to demonstrate the importance of the sustainable management of elephant populations.

Japan and China have been the only two countries permitted to take part as buyers in the 2008 auctions as a reward for being nations deemed by CITES to be sufficiently committed to stopping illegal ivory exportation at home. CITES are confident that these nations have sufficient controls in place to retain any ivory purchased at the auctions within their borders thus preventing any from reaching illegal international markets. Other nations wishing to partake in any future official auctions may then be encouraged to strengthen their resolve in stopping illegal trade so that they too may reach the criteria set by CITES.

The last officially sanctioned ivory auctions took place in the same four countries in 1999 and raised over $5 million that was successfully invested in multiple conservation projects. CITES conducted a study in the months following the auction, which revealed that events did not precipitate a rise in illegal seizures. This led CITES to conclude that there was no evidence that decisively showed that the auction had stimulated additional poaching.

Conservationists fear that these auctions give the wrong message regarding the international ivory trade and will lead people to believe that ivory markets are opening up again. This notion may lead to a surge in global demand for ivory and would thus encourage poachers to increase their supply to meet such demand. Furthermore as ivory derived from culled animals is deemed legitimate for sale it is possible that impoverished or corrupt governments may increase current culling quotas. Finally the restrictive nature of official auctions may inadvertently stimulate the growth of black markets as many nations are excluded from partaking in legal auctions and so would thus turn their attention to illegitimate sources of ivory.

Although elephant populations in the four auction states are now deemed to be largely sustainable, populations in other parts of Africa and Asia are still gravely endangered (P. Anstiss, 2008). The irresponsible opening up of the international ivory market through these African auctions may have disastrous ramifications for global elephant populations as poaching activity will increase to meet rising demand. It is estimated that in Africa alone more than 20,000 animals are still killed illegally each year while Indian elephant populations will become increasingly vulnerable due to the proximity of bounteous Asian markets.

Despite claims made by CITES that China is doing enough to combat the illegal ivory trade, earlier in the year the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) leaked a Chinese government memo which admitted to losing 120 tonnes of government stockpile ivory in the past 12 years (The Independent, October 2008). If this claim is indeed true then the legitimacy of the auctions again comes into question as any sales made to inadequately prepared countries may continue to fuel black market trade.