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IS IRAN NEARING A TIPPING POINT?
Once demonstrations get to a certain size, or the government is unwilling to cause too much bloodshed protests can topple a government. The overthrow of the Shah demonstrated this, as did the rolling back of communism in 1989. Unfortunately it is very difficult to measure when or if the protesters will gain the upper hand or the willingness of the authorities to be brutal in putting down protests. It may depend partially on how big the change would be; in this case the tipping point may be quite low as the likely change in regime is simply from the more radical elements to more moderate elements within the current elite rather than a full scale revolution. Is the tipping point nearing?
Is Iran nearing a tipping point?
Yes, because... Several high profile and influential Clerics have joined the protest
Contrary to what the Government might try to portray, it is not only a revolution of a small number of people wanting to undermine the Islamic state. Many high profile clerics have voiced their support for the protests, in many cases as a result of the severe crack-down by the Government and the alleged vote rigging. The fact that respected clerics who are members of the establishment share the views of those on the streets means that the protests may well be taken more seriously by the Government.
Is Iran nearing a tipping point?
No, because... No sign of armed forces or militia switching sides
For any revolution to be successful, the military must change sides and back the popular protest. Without this, the Government will always have the ability to crush protesters if they choose to do so. Despite occasional reports of forces refusing to fire on protesters, the reality appears to be that the Government still have full control of the military and Basij militia. Although getting accurate information out of Iran is difficult, recent mobile phone footage appeared to show militia running down protesters.[1] There have also been reports of further shootings in December. Until Government forces and Government backed militias make a stand with protesters, there is little hope of regime change.
Vote on this debate: Is Iran nearing a tipping point?
Modified:
06 Apr 2010
Point 1. Several high profile and influential Clerics have joined the protest
Contrary to what the Government might try to portray, it is not only a revolution of a small number of people wanting to undermine the Islamic state. Many high profile clerics have voiced their support for the protests, in many cases as a result of the severe crack-down by the Government and the alleged vote rigging. The fact that respected clerics who are members of the establishment share the views of those on the streets means that the protests may well be taken more seriously by the Government.
Point 1. No sign of armed forces or militia switching sides
For any revolution to be successful, the military must change sides and back the popular protest. Without this, the Government will always have the ability to crush protesters if they choose to do so. Despite occasional reports of forces refusing to fire on protesters, the reality appears to be that the Government still have full control of the military and Basij militia. Although getting accurate information out of Iran is difficult, recent mobile phone footage appeared to show militia running down protesters.[1] There have also been reports of further shootings in December. Until Government forces and Government backed militias make a stand with protesters, there is little hope of regime change.